intelligence
the model, with receipts.
last settled 7h ago · refreshing every 30s
Every number on this page is settled-pick math from the full history. We don't hide losing weeks. nothing cherry-picked. If the model stops working, you read it here first.
- hit rate
- 1%
- all-time roi
- +35.0%
- sample
- 169
- avg clv
- -0.18%
95-74
+59.11u
settled · 5 sports
3 tracked
the climb
weekly P&L
Every settled pick, banked by week. Bars are that week's net units (green up, red down); the line is the running total. The dip is real — we don't smooth it out.
strategy backtest
the disciplined cut
What you'd earn flat-staking only the picks that cleared a 2.5% calibrated edge — the bar the model actually bets behind. Fewer bets, sharper number. This is the strategy, not the whole slate.
all settled picks
+35.0%
56% hit · 169 bets · +59.11u
disciplined ≥2.5% edge
+76.3%
59% hit · 68 of 169 bets · +51.91u
Every settled pick so far lands inside the last 30 days, so the 30 / 60 / 90-day windows return the identical qualifying set — shown once.
weekly roi
calibration
predicted vs actual
When the model says 60% it should hit ~60%. The tick is what it predicted; the dot is what actually happened. Green = met or beat the promise, red = overconfident.
- 40-50%pred 44% · actual 59% · n=70
- 50-60%pred 55% · actual 57% · n=47
per sport
where the edge actually comes from
Some sports are crackable (sharp lines + dispersion); some aren't. Bars diverge from break-even — right is profit, left is bleed. This is where to look before you size up.
mlb
81-58 · 58%
+35.1%
+48.75u
soccer
4-6 · 40%
+86.0%
+8.60u
per book
where the prices live
How often each book is holding the +EV line, and how big that edge runs. Lines move; this is settled-pick history, not theoretical edge.
fanduel
1,419 priced
89% carried +EV
+3.1%
avg · +68.1% best
caesars
344 priced
highlight reel
biggest wins
Top settled wins by profit units. Real picks, real dates — search them up.
MLBWashington Nationals ML
+17.00u · +2.0% edge
- SOCCER
Aston Villa ML
+7.50u · +28.2% edge
receipts
recent losses
What we lost lately. We post these for the same reason we post the wins — variance is the whole game.
- MLB
New York Mets ML
— · +22.2% edge
- MLB
Tampa Bay Rays ML
— · +15.7% edge
- MLB
