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model's read in plain english
We're taking Louisville on the moneyline at +275, which gives us a 3.3% edge versus Pinnacle's no-vig 28.1% probability, making this a solid +EV spot at FanDuel. Louisville's passing attack should find success against an Ole Miss secondary that's been vulnerable to vertical throws, especially with the Cardinals' ability to move the ball efficiently in the intermediate game. The main risk here is that Louisville's defense has given up explosive plays to ranked teams, so if Ole Miss gets early momentum, the Rebels could establish a rhythm that makes the moneyline sweat despite the value.
Pinnacle no-vig 28.1%, best FanDuel +275 → +3.3% edge. Kelly: 1.25u.
how picks at this edge level have settled
26
picks settled
53.8%
historical win %
+82.11%
per-unit return
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