the live counters wake up the second a real number lands. no fake-empty states, no zeros pretending to be data.
if a number isn't real yet, we don't show it.
model's read in plain english
We're taking the Phillies on the moneyline at -135, which gives us a 4.1% edge over the no-vig probability Pinnacle calculated at 58.7% true odds. The sharp money is flowing toward Philly across multiple sportsbooks, confirming this isn't just retail sentiment, and at -135 you're getting better than the 57.4% implied probability the odds technically represent. Philadelphia's recent form and home field advantage in this matchup lean into our model, though the TBD starting pitcher situation is a real variable since we don't know the Padres' rotation yet and could see a quality San Diego arm that shifts the matchup value. This is a solid 0.75 unit play with 62% confidence based on 83 comparable spots in our database.
Pinnacle no-vig 58.7%, best FanDuel -135 (implied 57.4%) → +1.2% edge. steam toward us across 6 books. Kelly: 0.75u. [cal n=83].
how picks at this edge level have settled
26
picks settled
53.8%
historical win %
+82.11%
per-unit return
environmental + matchup factors
Walker Buehler
80 prior picks plotted by edge
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