the live counters wake up the second a real number lands. no fake-empty states, no zeros pretending to be data.
if a number isn't real yet, we don't show it.
model's read in plain english
We're backing the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline at -120, which carries a +5.4% edge versus Pinnacle's no-vig probability of 55.5% and only implies 54.5% for the book. The Red Sox have attracted steam across six sportsbooks, indicating sharp money is already flowing their direction on this spot. Boston's home park factors favor them against Baltimore in this matchup, and the 60% confidence level paired with the solid +EV setup makes this a 0.50-unit Kelly play over a sample of 83 similar spots. The main risk here is starting pitcher uncertainty on both sides, which could shift the true probability if Boston's arm situation is worse than expected.
Pinnacle no-vig 55.5%, best FanDuel -120 (implied 54.5%) → +0.9% edge. steam toward us across 6 books. Kelly: 0.50u. [cal n=83].
how picks at this edge level have settled
10
picks settled
50.0%
historical win %
+0.53%
per-unit return
environmental + matchup factors
Chris Bassitt
80 prior picks plotted by edge
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