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model's read in plain english
We're taking the Diamondbacks at +265 to beat the Dodgers, and the value is clean: Pinnacle's sharp no-vig line puts Arizona at 48.8% to win, but Bovada's +265 implies just 27.4%, giving us a 21.4% edge before accounting for the 29.2% markup the market's already showing. The data shows steam moving our direction across seven books, which means sharps have already started buying this number higher. Arizona's getting 3.00 units of Kelly value here based on 83 comparable spots in the database, so this isn't a gut call, it's a process edge. The main risk is the starting pitcher matchup remains TBD, so you'll want to confirm the Dodgers aren't sending out Kershaw or someone similarly elite before locking it in.
Pinnacle no-vig 48.8%, best Bovada +265 (implied 27.4%) → +21.4% edge. steam toward us across 7 books. Kelly: 3.00u. [cal n=83].
how picks at this edge level have settled
18
picks settled
38.9%
historical win %
+61.44%
per-unit return
environmental + matchup factors
Shohei Ohtani
80 prior picks plotted by edge
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