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New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
model's read in plain english
The pick is Luke Kornet Under 2.5 points at +106 on BetMGM, which carries a 1.9% edge over the book's implied probability and sits just under the 50% consensus mark across five sportsbooks. Since Pinnacle no-vig data isn't available, we're relying on that 1.9% algorithmic edge, which is thin but positive for a 50% confidence play. Kornet's minutes and role are the key variable here, as he typically logs bench minutes and doesn't generate consistent scoring opportunities, especially in games where the Nuggets go deep into their rotation. The main risk is that a 50% confidence level means this is essentially a coin flip, so even with a small edge, variance will determine results over a short sample.
Luke Kornet U2.5 — consensus 50.4% across 5 books, best betmgm +106 → +1.9% edge.
how picks at this edge level have settled
45
picks settled
60.0%
historical win %
+30.59%
per-unit return
6 prior picks plotted by edge
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