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New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
model's read in plain english
We're taking Keldon Johnson under 3.5 points at FanDuel's -121, which carries a +1.7% edge over the consensus sharp number across the market. The play sits at 56% confidence and checks out mathematically since the implied probability at -121 is roughly 54.7%, beating the 56.4% consensus that sharps are pricing this at across books. Johnson's role in the Spurs offense keeps him in a scoring squeeze, especially when he's not getting heavy usage on good-volume nights. The main risk here is that one hot shooting night could easily bust the under, so this isn't a high-conviction play, but the math favors us long-term if we're consistently finding these small edges.
Keldon Johnson U3.5 — consensus 56.4% across 6 books, best fanduel -121 → +1.7% edge.
how picks at this edge level have settled
45
picks settled
60.0%
historical win %
+30.59%
per-unit return
6 prior picks plotted by edge
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