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New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
model's read in plain english
The bet is Keldon Johnson over 3.5 assists at +132 on BetRivers. With Pinnacle no-vig unavailable, the edge is a slim +0.5% based on a 43.6% consensus hit rate across six books, making the price slightly +EV. A key factor is Johnson's increased playmaking role with the Spurs' young core, which boosts his assist upside in a fast-paced offense. The risk is his inconsistent assist totals, as he often focuses on scoring and can fall short of the line in low-possession games.
Keldon Johnson O3.5 — consensus 43.6% across 6 books, best betrivers +132 → +0.5% edge.
how picks at this edge level have settled
45
picks settled
60.0%
historical win %
+30.59%
per-unit return
6 prior picks plotted by edge
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